Support for Remain in Gibraltar has strengthened in the run-up to the June 23 election, according to a Chronicle poll which found 93% would vote to stay in the European Union.
The findings published today also signal the likelihood of a massive turnout next Thursday, with virtually everyone who was asked indicating that they intended to vote in the referendum.
The face-to-face poll sampled opinion from 596 voters eligible to vote in Gibraltar, of whom 578 said they intended to cast a ballot. Only 18 people said they would abstain.
That points to a turnout of 96.98%, up from 85% when the Chronicle polled the same number of people in the middle of April before the Gibraltar Stronger in Europe campaign got under way.
Of the 578 people who said they would vote, 540 of them – or 93.43% – said they would vote for Remain, up from 88% in the Chronicle’s April poll.
“This is an excellent result but we can’t take it for granted,” said Chief Minister Fabian Picardo, the leader of the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party.
“The only poll that counts is the vote next Thursday.”
“It’s every Gibraltarian’s duty to go out and vote to Remain.”
If the Gibraltar result on polling day reflects the Chronicle’s findings, it would be comparable to the 2002 referendum in which this community overwhelmingly rejected an Anglo-Spanish proposal for joint sovereignty. On that occasion, 87.9% of eligible voters turned out to say no to joint sovereignty by 98.97%.
“This is exactly what we need, a massive turnout for Remain on Thursday,” said GSD leader Daniel Feetham.
“But we cannot allow complacency to set in and we have got to make sure we get all our friends and family out to vote.”
The latest poll was conducted on the Chronicle’s behalf by Sonia Golt and her team, as was the poll in April. It was conducted between Monday and Wednesday this week and polling had been completed before news of David Cameron’s visit to the Rock today was announced.
Of those polled, only 12 people said they would vote for Leave, representing 2.08% of those who said they would vote on June 23.
That figure is down from 8% in the April poll, indicating less support for Leave than two months ago. Most of those who said they would vote Leave were in the older age groups.
Another 26 people said they still did not know how they would vote on June 23, representing 4.49% and up from 3% in April.
The size of the poll represents around 2.5% of registered voters at the referendum.
Although the figure has yet to be finalised, the total number of eligible voters in Gibraltar will be about 24,100, according to the Gibraltar Parliament.